Stock Ideas (#4)

Last updated Monday, 13-Dec-1999 18:40:32 UTC.

What follows are descriptions of stocks I have been following of late that I think are good bets either long or short. This list is for late 1999 and early 2000.

How I did

Let's start with a review of the last monthly list of picks I posted. All price, incidentally, are to the nearest dollar.

Symbol Name Profiled at Now at Comments
C Citigroup 44 56 (+27.3%)

I continue to like this monstrosity of a financial services company. There is a lot going on here with surges in credit card, underwriting, retail brokerage, consumer spending surges, cross-marketing between Citibank and Travelers, a new venture called CitiStreet, etc. Technically speaking, it is definitely having trouble moving to new-high territory. Therefore, I recommend taking about half your profits if you bought in earlier, and continuing to accumulate shares on any weakness.

PCLN Priceline.com 63 58 (+7.3%)

This company still sucks. Remain short. Those who took my advice sold it short at 139. That's almost a 60% gain in less than a year. I think you should short some more. Why? Well, the reverse auction model is nothing revolutionary, the market is losing patience with companies that bleed red ink, and they suck.

AMN Ameron 47 42 (-10.6%)

Unfortunately I was a little early predicting the financial renaissance of companies that make fiberglass and composite pipe. But, as far as I know the outlook for Ameron is pretty good. I would wait for it to solidly break out to new highs before jumping in, though. Clearly there isn't much liquidity or interest in the shares right now. Hold a position.

LUV Southwest Airlines 15 16 (+6.7%)

Price pressure from rising oil is not doing LUV any favors, but they remain a solid growth story and a low-risk buy at these levels. More on airlines follows.

CAL Continental Airlines 32 41 (+28.1%)

I would continue to accumulate quality airline stocks like CAL at these levels. I was wrong about the price of oil, but you made money off of this one, didn't you? They are growing Latin American and European traffic nicely, buying shares back, and valued pretty cheaply still. The technical picture is muddy but I am cautiously optimistic, especially if we reach the 50s again. Buy!

ACAI Atlantic Coast Airlines 20 22 (+10.0%)

This is still a favorite of mine. Despite fuel, they are executing well and represent a solid value. Buy!

AMR AMR (American Airlines) 54 61 (-13.0%)

There was a pretty good airline rally, so this hedge is underwater. I continue to think they are in a poorer position than the airlines I recommended long. I would short more if 70 is reached, but my pain threshold is about 80.

AWA AWA (America West) 18 20 (-11.0%)

Same as above, but the chart's appealing congestion pattern means that a short sale near 22, the April and July high, would be a favorable play from a trading perspective. Give that a shot, and don't worry unless your stop is reached at 25. See CHINA for more on stops in short-selling.

CHINA China.com 63 154 (-144.0%) See, the pick was for October, not for November. Anyway, this one was a pretty nasty disappointment. I hope you had deep pockets or a stop order in place. This is a good time for me to recommend that you set stop levels on ALL your shorts. In this case a reasonable one would have been around the old highs at 80. It's especially important to do this when playing the short side of the market, because you can lose over 100% your initial margin. Everything I said fundamentally about the company is still true as far as I know, and I would consider shorting in the 160's with a tight (maybe 20-point) stop. As a further trading note, if I won that battle, I might move my stop down to the previous resistance level at 140, and perhaps even pyramid the position. These are ways to capitalize on a downward movement without exposing yourself to a slaughtering.

CTXS Citrix 59 110 (+86.4%)

Citrix is a nice company, but please take some of your profits off the table while we're still at overbought levels. I would begin to buy it back around 90 if there is indeed a pullback. And there should be.

MMWW Metamor Worldwide 17 37 (+117.6%)

I bet on a run in October and I got a massive climb to a new 52-week high. I am sitting happily on my profits because they are spinning off Xpedior at a ratio greater than 1:1 to current shareholders, which could mean a nice bonus next year sometime. The IPO (XPDR) is the week of this writing. XPDR is nicely profitable, and anyway I invite you to read more about these guys and buy more MMWW.

CREAF Creative Technologies 10 18 (+80%)

Here's another super-strong stock, this time from Singapore. It's at the brink of new-high territory, and I think you would be crazy not to own some.

NSANY Nissan 12 9 (-25.0%)

Automakers have been dreadful lately, and Nissan is starting to give up gains. It's hard to time a turnaround play, so the bottom line is that if you believe in the company you will be averaging down (ie, buying more) at these nice prices, but if you don't you have to look for a better place to put money.

CANNY Canon 28 36 (+28.6%)

These guys have caught a nice upward trend. I would add to existing holdings here and hope for the best in the coming month.

JBL Jabil 49 73 (+48.9%)

Electronics vendors have been doing very nicely. I would hold your existing gains and try to add to the position on any pullback to the sixties.

DELL Dell 41 41

Dell stock is treading water. I expect them to get it together in the coming months. You haven't seen the last of this strong company, and I think it's still possible to double one's money here.

SLR Solectron 74 91 (+23.0%)

Same as for Jabil, really. These guys are in the good graces of the market and should be fine as long as the market for growth stocks remains frothy.

BTGC Biotechnology General 10 11 (+10.0%)

This stocks is fundamentally still very sound and in a pullback phase at the moment. I think this is a nice time to add to existing positions in BTGC.

BCHE Biochem Pharma Inc 24 21 (-12.5%)

BCHE is the same type of story. I think biotechs will get their turn again to be in favor with the market, and there is no time like the present pullback to buy and place your bet for 2000.

DK Donna Karan 8 7 5/8 (+4.7%)

If you had the stop at 8 1/2, it turned out to be too tight. If you pyramided your short in the $9 range, you are feeling much better today. There's still not much good to say about this retailer.

So, your average gain was about +13% if you took every recommended position and held until today. If you managed to get out of CHINA with a 25% loss, rather than ride it into triple digits, you have about +19% in profits overall. This is about twice the market's overall clip for the previous 8 weeks.

And now... the new set of picks!

From now on, the performance of the portfolio, as well as any changes, can be found at this marketplayer.com page. I'll be sure to update recommendations here whenever I make a trade over there.



Symbol Name Price Rating Comments
MPPP MP3.com 35 yukyukyukyuk

What would a pick list from me be without the latest chunk of Internet garbage? This company runs an online repository of poor music. What a concept!

ONEM OneMain.com 17 yukyukyuk

Here's another from the trash heap. Steady downtrend, no profits in sight. Enjoy!

RMDY Remedy Corp. 44 ****

I see signs of serious strength for this provider of temporary services, both in terms of prcie action and in terms of business trends. I think a slightly-above-market forward multiple is not too bad for such a uniquely positioned business. On the technical side, we have just taken out a new high set a few months ago, so I think there will be a short rest and then a move to great heights.

CUBE C-Cube Microsystems Inc. 51 ****

Outstanding uptrend for this multimedia electronics company, and the best part is that the multiple is very reasonable. I like what I see!

PCLN Priceline.com 58 yukyukyukyuk

(see above)

LUV Southwest Airlines 16 *****

(see above)

CAL Continental Airlines 41 *****

(see above)

ACAI Atlantic Coast Airlines 22 ****

(see above)

CHINA China.com 154 yukyukyukyuk

This time it's personal. (see above)

MMWW Metamor Worldwide 37 ****

(see above)

CREAF Creative Technologies 10 ****

(see above)

CANNY Canon 36 ***

(see above)

DELL Dell 41 ****

(see above)

BTGC Biotechnology General 11 ***

(see above)

BCHE Biochem Pharma Inc 21 ***

(see above)


Copyright (C) 1999-2000 Joseph Fouché.
The above does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any securities.

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