Stock Ideas (#1)

Last updated Tuesday, 15-Jun-1999 20:56:22 UTC.

What follows are descriptions of stocks I have been following of late that I think are mispriced. I may continue to add to this for a while, but I will freeze it before mid-June and revisit each pick (or pan) later on.

This month's picks focus on the financial and consumer sectors, which I believe contains some real gems worth taking a look at.

Update: Market action has been tough. An equal-dollar-weighted portfolio of these picks is down 0.27% before commissions or interest. This gives it a pretty nice track record, though, since the S&P is virtually flat for the same period. Synopsys has done beautifully, rising 20.5%, but NDB is down 31.5% over the same period. Priceline has moved all the way to 80 and I still consider it a nice short. (I would also continue to buy NDB and Synopsys here.) Recent market action demonstrates the importance of shorting in a portfolio, and in my new list of picks I will attempt to include a few more of them.



Symbol Name Price Rating Comments
C Citigroup 67 13/16 *****

I really like this monstrosity of a financial services company. In the current climate of high consumer spending and investment activity, they should continue to do well. They are around 20 times forward earnings, so I consider them highly attractive. I would buy anywhere below $70 and hope for $90.

(I have a pretty favorable outlook for interest rates; it may be less attractive to those who don't, or have enough exposure to that effect already) Disclosure: I am long this one.

DCX DaimlerChrysler 91 3/16 ****

This company is very cheap. I would buy now because most of the risk of lower profit growth is already priced in (trailing earnings multiple of 15) and I believe the current "growing pains" will clear up fast enough for this stock to outperform its peers. It doesn't hurt that they have over 50 years of Mercedes engineering experience to combine with over 50 years of American design know-how, as well as five brand names recognized by hundreds of millions of consumers here and abroad. It's attractive well into the $100 range and I would hold for $150 or more.

PCLN Priceline.com 138 15/16 yukyukyukyuk

This company sucks. There is no value beyond $5 that I can see. However, they are currently at a market cap of a major passenger airline. Their business model is ridiculous (at least as they are executing it) and frenzied Internet investors will not tolerate the years of losses they must inevitably endure to create any real wealth for its shareholders. Patient short sellers should be rewarded.

ONE BankOne 59 13/16 ****

Another cheap banking stock. These guys keep sending me offers for pre-approved credit... They're even cheaper than Citigroup (trailing P/E is 20) and probably more of a "pure play" on the credit card business. I've seen it touted by more than one value manager recently, which is bullish if the resurgence of value plays continues. Like Citigroup it's near year-ago price levels. They're also making some forays into online banking, so watch out for big spikes (be ready to sell part of your holdings into them!). I'd buy below 65 and hope for 80-90.

NDB National Discount Brokers 51 1/16 *****

This may be the only reasonably-priced online brokerage stock. Many liken it to SWS (Southwest Securities), but SWS operates a far inferior web broker, is higher-valued and generates most current income from market-making investments. NDB, on the other hand, has been consistently keeping up with the 'big boys' (AMTD/EGRP) in the numerous side-by-side comparisons that publications seem to enjoy doing, and is getting rid of its market-making businesses to focus on becoming an online brokerage power.

They lack analyst coverage and are poised to earn about $2-$3 for '99 at current rates of expansion. They've recently filed for a secondary offering, which should increase liquidity and provide buying opportunities for anyone that reads this. (Illiquid moments are apparent in the chart, and I kick myself reasonably often for not unloading some more shares in the high 80's)

Buy under 60 and hold for 150-200. Disclosure:I'm long this stock. I really, really like this one.

BSC Bear Stearns 42 9/16 ****

This investment firm is very cheap. The current P/E ratio of 12 allows room for significant fluctuations in earnings over the next few years. The stock is still working on coming back to pre-Asian crisis levels, so I think now is the time to pick some up. Watch them outperform super-hyped Goldman Sachs!

I'd buy anywhere below 55 and hope for 90.

BOSA Boston Acoustics 18 3/8 ***

At a P/E of 8, this audio/video equipment company has a lot less downside risk than those cyber-stocks everybody loves. If you believe in Gateway's growth prospects, they have a large OEM agreement to put speakers in Gateway PCs. Besides that, they make fine products and I expect that consumer spending will continue to favor companies like these.

Buy below $20 and be patient; $50 may be your reward.

MDY S&P Midcap 400 Spider 76 1/8 ***

The S&P MidCap 400 still has a rather high P/E, but if you think any further action will take place in the small and mid-cap range of stocks, this index is a pretty good play. I wonder if plans for a SmallCap 600 spider are in the works?

Load up below 80 and wait for 85-90.

WSM Williams-Sonoma 76 1/8 **

This specialty retailer stands to benefit from an increase in big-ticket spending. Anyone walking through the stores can see they run a high-margin business, and there are indications of marketing savvy as well as shrewd store location. The stock was doing wonderfully before it hit a snag on a management shakeup, but it has since gained most of that ground back.

I'd get in under 40 and try for 50-60.

BGP Borders 16 5/8 **

This company runs the most alluring bookstores on the planet. Book retailing is still a real business (in stores!), and at a P/E of 14, these guys could benefit immensely if people spend money to buy things in those stores. Unlike what some small investors seem to think, the threat of Amazon putting Borders out of business is nonexistent. My mentality when browsing Amazon is totally different than when I'm sitting with a tall mocha at Borders thumbing through the latest book on how you can beat the market with surefire daytrading strategies.

If it trades stably into the 20s, it's time to take it for a spin up to 40 or 50.

SNPS Synopsys 45 15/16 ****

This semiconductor-design-software company is valued under 20 times forward earnings, but has enjoyed 37% revenue growth and 25% earnings growth for some time now.

Buy before it gets to 55 and hope for a P/E of 30, which would be 90 in a year.

SNPS Atlantic Coast Airlines 17 9/16 ****

This airline is in much better shape than its valuation indicates. The forward P/E is 8 and 20% profit growth is projected. Regional carrier service appears to me to be an untapped market, so 20% growth seems conservative.

Buy under 20; reaching P/E of 25 could mean 300% returns.

EMMS Emmis Communications 45 1/8 yukyuk

This broadcasting operator and magazine publisher doesn't trade at a reasonable valuation right now. There's a lot of debt and they're not earning very much these days. I'd say they need a miracle to keep the stock above 30, especially if market conditions go south. I think it may be priced for a buyout, but they are closely held and loaded with debt, making it unattractive.


Copyright (C) 1999-2000 Joseph Fouché.
The above does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any securities.

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